2025 Government Shutdown 1st Week - Who’s Buying Retail or Smart Money?
On October 1st, as the government shutdown began, the S&P 500 broke above the 667 level and climbed to a new all-time high of 672—a 0.75% gain. While headlines celebrated the bullish breakout, the more important question is: who’s actually fueling this move?
A deeper look at the chart shows rising price action supported by an uptick in OBV, typically signaling broad participation. Yet our custom Market Energy indicator paints a different picture. Despite the breakout, internal energy declined—suggesting that momentum may be fading beneath the surface.
This divergence points to a possible scenario where institutional players are quietly distributing into strength, while retail traders chase the rally. It’s a textbook case of price masking exhaustion, and a reminder that surface-level momentum can be misleading.
In Friday’s session, the S&P 500 extended its highs early on, but starting around noon, price action reversed alongside a drop in OBV and Market Energy—culminating in a doji candle on the daily chart. Heading into the new week, if bulls can push decisively above 670, a retest of the highs remains on the table. However, if price stays below 669, we may see a pullback toward 667, 664, or even 661.
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
Bitcoin Analysis - 9/25/2025
Bitcoin has broken its trendline and is now trading below the 20-week moving average, a sign of weakening momentum.
Downside risk: Price could retest the $105K area as near-term support. A break below that level may open the door to the 50-week moving average near $100K.
Upside potential: If buyers regain control and push price above $118K resistance, momentum could shift, giving Bitcoin a strong chance to retest all-time highs.
Bitcoin Futures Chart
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
S&P 500 Bulls & Bears Fight It Out - 9/25/2025
The S&P 500 has traded in the red for three consecutive sessions despite stronger-than-expected economic data. Today’s session closed with a doji candlestick, signaling indecision as bulls and bears battle for control.
Currently, the index is caught between the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. A decisive break above or below will likely determine near-term direction.
Downside risk: A loss of support at 650 could open the door to a test of the 10-week moving average.
Upside potential: If bulls can clear resistance at 662, the next target would be 665. A breakout above that level could set the stage for another run toward all-time highs.
S&P 500 Chart
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
S&P 500 Analysis | Do We Start a Pullback?
It’s critical that the bulls keep 660 level of support and/or 10 day moving average or we he have a good chance of testing the 20-day moving average around the 653 area or fill the gap around 652. If the sellers maintain momentum this could be a possible 2% - 2.5% pullback in the market from all-time highs.
S&P 500 Chart Analysis
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
10 Year Treasury Impact on Financial Products
Chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield
The 10-Year Treasury yield is a cornerstone of financial markets. From 2020 to 2023, yields rose sharply, reflecting inflation concerns and Fed tightening. Since then, yields have mostly plateaued, hovering around 4.1% as of September 2025. Let’s breakdown how the performance of 10 -Year Treasury Yields impacts the following financial products:
1) Index Universal Life Policies (IULs)
High yields → More bond income → Larger options budget → Higher cap & participation rates.
Low yields → Less income → Smaller options budget → Lower caps, possible fee increases.
Client Takeaway:
Higher Treasury yields typically mean better growth potential in IUL policies.
2) Annuities (Fixed, Indexed, MYGAs)
Fixed Annuities & MYGAs:
• Directly tied to bond yields.
• Higher Treasury rates allow insurers to offer more attractive fixed returns.
Indexed Annuities:
• Similar to IULs, they rely on an options budget.
• Higher yields → Improved caps and participation rates.
Variable Annuities:
• Less direct impact, but bond fund performance and guaranteed income riders are influenced by Treasury trends.
Client Takeaway:
Rising yields enhance income potential and flexibility across annuity types
3) High - Yield Savings Accounts (HYSAs)
Bank Benchmarking:
• Banks use Treasury yields to set deposit rates.
• Online banks often respond faster than traditional institutions.
Impact:
• Rising yields → HYSA rates tend to increase (though not always proportionally).
• Falling yields → HYSA rates drop, sometimes rapidly.
Client Takeaway:
HYSA rates are sensitive to Treasury movements, especially in competitive online banking environments.
4) Whole Life Policies
The 10-year Treasury yield is a leading indicator of where whole life dividends are headed.
Insurers may hold bonds for 10–20 years, so changes in the 10-year Treasury yield take years to fully impact dividend scales.
Rising yields → eventual improvement in dividends and cash value growth.
Falling yields → pressure on dividends, slower cash accumulation.
Effects are gradual, not immediate, because of the long-duration bond portfolios insurers hold.
FOMC ANNOUCEMENT 25 Basis Rate Cut - S&P 500 Analysis 9/17/2025
Today, Jerome Powell announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, but markets struggled to interpret the move. Trading closed with a doji candlestick, reflecting indecision, though sellers ultimately held more control.
Today, Jerome Powell announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, but markets struggled to interpret the move. Trading closed with a doji candlestick, reflecting indecision, though sellers ultimately held more control. The uncertainty around how many additional cuts may follow over the next year has raised expectations of heightened volatility, according to Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global. Amid the confusion, one concern stood out: the Federal Reserve’s growing unease with the strength of the U.S. labor market. Investors remain torn between optimism over lower borrowing costs and caution surrounding employment weakness.
S&P 500 Chart Analysis
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
Debt Reduction Plan - Avalanche Strategy
Below is an example of our debt reduction calculator, designed to help identify the most efficient strategy to pay off debt in the quickest way possible. This approach to debt reduction assumes that a client is able to allocate additional funds each month toward their debt by reviewing and adjusting their budget. Other methods of debt reduction—such as debt consolidation loans, taking out a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit), debt settlement, or bankruptcy—are not included in this presentation.
Debt Reduction Calculator
S&P 500 MARKET UPDATE | FOMC MEETING 9/16/2025
The S&P 500 has continued pushing to new all-time highs this week ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting (9/17). In the background, however, there are signs of caution. The VIX has broken above its 50-day moving average, while BND (the Total Bond Market ETF) has pushed above its 200-week moving average.
The bullish price action in both bonds and the VIX could be a warning signal for equities. If the bears fail to defend the 659 support level, we may see a gap fill down toward 652, which also lines up with a potential retest of the 10-day moving average.
S&P 500 Chart Analysis
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
Bond Market Analysis 9/11/2025
The Vanguard Total Market Index has broken above its 200-week moving average, while the BND Bond ETF is also showing signs of a breakout. Equity markets appear to be interpreting potential Fed rate cuts as a catalyst for stronger corporate profits, while the bond market seems to be pricing in a faster pace of cuts due to economic weakness.
This raises the key question: Who will be wrong?
So far, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have all reached new all-time highs this week, even as the bond market continues to rally. Historically, stocks and bonds have tended to move in opposite directions — when stocks decline, money often shifts into bonds, pushing bond prices higher, and when stocks rally, funds typically rotate out of bonds and into equities.
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
SPY TRADING ANALYSIS 9-11-2025
The Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all made new all-time highs, it appears CPI/PPI data were well received this week by the market. I’m seeing a breakout of a trendline on the S&P 500 that may take us to the 660-area target. We may back test the breakout around the 655 area before continuation.
S&P 500 Trading Analysis
4hr S&P 500 Chart
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
Six Major Changes to Higher Education Funding Under OBBBA
The new law reshapes how families, students, and even employers approach education funding. Here are six of the most significant changes:
1. Expanded Uses for 529 Plans
The definition of qualified education expenses is broadening. Families can now use 529 funds for:
Homeschooling supplies
Certain technology expenses
Test fees
Other non-tuition costs
In addition, the annual withdrawal limit for K–12 expenses will permanently increase from $10,000 to $20,000 in 2026.
A reminder: 529 plans are tax-advantaged accounts where contributions grow tax-deferred and qualified withdrawals are tax-free.
2. New Limits on Federal Student Loans
OBBBA eliminates the Graduate PLUS Loan program (effective July 1, 2026 for new borrowers) and introduces tighter borrowing caps:
Graduate Students: $20,500 annually; $100,000 lifetime.
Professional Degree Students (e.g., law, medicine): $50,000 annually; $200,000 lifetime.
Parent PLUS Loans: $20,000 annually per dependent; $65,000 lifetime.
Overall Lifetime Federal Loan Cap (excluding Parent PLUS): Roughly $257,500.
Existing Graduate PLUS borrowers may receive limited grandfathering.
3. Pell Grant Eligibility Changes
Starting July 1, 2026:
Pell Grants will cover job training and certificate programs, expanding access for vocational students.
Students with full-ride scholarships will no longer qualify for Pell, potentially limiting financial flexibility for some high-achieving, low-income students.
4. Employer Education Contributions Made Permanent
Employers can permanently provide up to $5,250 annually, tax-free, toward an employee’s education expenses or student loan repayments. Beginning in 2026, this limit will be indexed to inflation.
5. ABLE Account Enhancements Made Permanent
ABLE accounts (for individuals with disabilities) will permanently include:
Higher annual contribution limits for working beneficiaries without workplace retirement plans.
A nonrefundable Saver’s Credit of up to $2,100.
6. Creation of “Trump Accounts”
A new tax-advantaged investment account, similar to a traditional IRA, will be available for children. Key features:
Parents can contribute on behalf of their child.
Withdrawals allowed beginning at age 18.
Funds may be used penalty-free for qualified higher education expenses (among other approved uses).
SPY Trading Analysis - 9/10/2025
The S&P 500 gapped higher at the open, following yesterday’s breakout and a stronger-than-expected PPI report released at 8:30 a.m. This bullish momentum carried the index to new all-time highs before sellers stepped in, driving prices lower and breaking through both the 652 support level and the uptrend line.
However, the market managed to stabilize and recover some of its losses into the close. Looking ahead, all eyes will be on tomorrow’s CPI data, which could set the tone for the next move. The key question is whether the bulls can regain control and push the index decisively above the 653 resistance level.
S&P 500 Price Action Analysis
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
S&P 500 Trading Analysis
Gold, Bitcoin, the VIX, and Bonds have all been on the decline this week, which may signal a risk-on environment—a positive backdrop for equity buyers. The S&P 500 has been consolidating in a range between 647 and 650, but today’s session closed with a slight breakout, suggesting the potential for a push toward 651 and all-time highs. The repeated tests of the 647 level also form a triple bottom, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Attention now shifts to the upcoming PPI and CPI releases, which could play a pivotal role in shaping price action for the rest of the week.
S&P 500 Price Action Analysis on 9/9/2025
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
BITCOIN ANALYSIS - $125,200
Bitcoin appears to have formed a potential short-term top near the $125,200 level and is currently consolidating between the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. This range is critical for determining the next directional move. A decisive breakout above the 10-week moving average would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially paving the way for a retest of its all-time highs and possibly establishing a higher resistance zone. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to hold the $109,000 support level, which aligns with the lower end of the current consolidation range, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the psychological $100,000 mark. Traders should monitor volume trends and momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD to confirm any breakout or breakdown scenario
Bitcoin appears to have formed a potential short-term top near the $125,200 level and is currently consolidating between the 10-week and 20-week moving averages. This range is critical for determining the next directional move. A decisive breakout above the 10-week moving average would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially paving the way for a retest of its all-time highs and possibly establishing a higher resistance zone. Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to hold the $109,000 support level, which aligns with the lower end of the current consolidation range, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the psychological $100,000 mark. Traders should monitor volume trends and momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD to confirm any breakout or breakdown scenario.
This is a chart of Bitcoin
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
9-4-2025 S&P 500 Trading Session - $126
9/4/2025 Trading Session on the S&P 500.
In today’s trading the session the S&P 500 filled the gap down and so I lost $34 in 646 calls. I quickly switched to 643 0DTE puts and made $27 on the downward movement. At around 10am the market rebounded breaking 646 resistance and closing the gap above at an attempt to hit all-time highs. I’m swinging a 648 call that is currently $133 in profit. I’m expecting the S&P 500 to hit all times on 9/5/2025.
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.
$168 Gain in 60 Seconds | Options Trading
Good morning,
This morning, I saw the S&P 500 gap down and break support at 646. I acted fast and bought seven 644 puts at $108 each and sold them less than a minute later for $132 each. That’s a $168 profit in under 60 seconds.
Sounds exciting, right? Many people I meet want this kind of quick win. But here’s the truth: trading is not investing. It’s high risk, and for every win like this, I’ve experienced plenty of losses.
Strong financial planning isn’t built on short-term speculation. It’s about long-term investing, disciplined strategies, and risk management that protect and grow your wealth. Quick profits can happen, but true financial success comes from a solid plan.
Which side do you want to build your future on—short-term luck or long-term strategy?
Disclaimer:
I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.