Bond Market Analysis 9/11/2025

The Vanguard Total Market Index has broken above its 200-week moving average, while the BND Bond ETF is also showing signs of a breakout. Equity markets appear to be interpreting potential Fed rate cuts as a catalyst for stronger corporate profits, while the bond market seems to be pricing in a faster pace of cuts due to economic weakness.

This raises the key question: Who will be wrong?

So far, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have all reached new all-time highs this week, even as the bond market continues to rally. Historically, stocks and bonds have tended to move in opposite directions — when stocks decline, money often shifts into bonds, pushing bond prices higher, and when stocks rally, funds typically rotate out of bonds and into equities.

Disclaimer:

I am not a licensed financial advisor, and the information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial, investment, or tax advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.