2025 Market Snapshot

This is a compelling snapshot of asset performance across 2025, Gold is leading followed by Semiconductors then Bitcoin.

My Market Theory - S&P 500

My bearish market outlook is driven by three primary economic factors: the formation of a potential AI bubble, a weakening labor market, and increasing credit stress. I’ve developed a proprietary Market Energy Indicator to measure the underlying strength—or “energy”—behind each candlestick. In the quarterly chart shown above, each bar represents three months of market activity. The indicator currently shows a declining rate of energy even as prices move higher, suggesting a possible pullback or correction on the horizon.

If this weakening energy trend continues, the market could retrace to fill lower gaps, potentially revisiting the April 2025 lows—or in a more severe scenario, testing the 2020 highs.

Meanwhile, gold continues to set new record highs, a move that may signal growing investor caution and increased hedging amid waning confidence in the equity markets.

Date: October 7, 2025