2025 Market Snapshot

This snapshot offers a concise view of asset performance in 2025. Silver leads the pack with an impressive 87% gain, followed by Gold at 58% and Semiconductors at 44%. Bitcoin is the worst performing being down -13%, Bonds are just around 3% right at the level of inflation.

Updated 12/01/25

The S&P 500 Monthly Analysis

S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Monthly Analysis

Price action is approaching the trendlines of both its broader channel and rising wedge. Currently, the price is positioned just below the 9 EMA and above the 20 EMA. It is nearing a test of all-time highs and could potentially break through this resistance to set new highs.

The momentum indicator, however, shows that momentum has already peaked and is rolling over, with the histogram fading even as price continues to make higher highs. This divergence between price and momentum suggests that the current upward leg is losing strength.

Notably, unlike previous market pullbacks, the blue signal line remains well above the zero line, highlighting the underlying bullish momentum. For a meaningful downturn to occur, bears would need to act aggressively. Otherwise, the market may experience consolidation or modest pullbacks before any larger decline materializes.

Updated: 12/05/2025

Key U.S. Economic Indicators

The combined picture is one of resilient growth but increasing fragility. Inflation is under control relative to recent peaks but remains above target, meaning policy must stay vigilant. The labour market, while still tight, shows signs of fatigue (job creation slowing dramatically). Consumption is recovering but not roaring ahead, and structural areas like manufacturing and housing are under clear strain.

In other words: the economy is not collapsing, but the upside runway is narrowing, and the risk of a soft patch is elevated. For investors or traders, this suggests a scenario of moderate growth with caution rather than strong acceleration.